张北6.2级地震序列显著余震现场灰色预测
On-site grey prediction to remarkable after shocks of zhangbei M6.2 earthquake
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摘要: 根据张家口地震台记录的1998年张北早期地震序列资料,对其显著余震(系指ML≥4.0,下同)建立了GM(1,1)动态灰色预测模型,并进而依此模型对张北震区主震后,短时内连续发生的5次显著余震进行了尝试性现场预测,结果与实事较吻合,表明灰色预测方法对于探讨如何简捷有效地预测地震序列早期强余震问题,可能具有一定的实际意义。Abstract: According to the early stage data of Zhangbei earthquake sequence in 1998 recorded at Zhangjiakou Station, GM (1, 1) dynamic grey prediction model for the remarkable after shocks(ML4.0) has been set up, and the trial on-site prediction to 5 remarkable after shocks which continuously occurred within short time period after the main shock in Zhangbei seismic area have been made by the model. The result is relatively identical with the fact, sbowing that the grey prediction method has a certain practical significance to how to simply and directly and effectively predict the early stage after shocks of earthquake sequences.