摘要:
自20世纪70年代地球物理所提出评价地震预报效能的R值评分方法以来, 由于其思路清晰, 概念明确, 便于操作, 使用方便, 几十年来被广泛使用。但是, 在特殊情况下, 该方法存在数学上的不成立现象, 于是, 人们对其进行一次重要改进和应用的拓展。然而, 改进和拓展后的方法, 同样还存在特殊情况下的数学上的不成立现象, 同时又产生了明显鼓励虚报的倾向。因此, 有必要进行再研究。本文提出了一种再研究后的方法, 不仅保证了在任何情况下数学上都成立, 而且既不鼓励虚报, 又不鼓励漏报, 其评价结果与实际效果完全一致。现提供大家参考和使用。
Abstract:
The method of scoring with R value had been put forward by Geophysical Institute on the 70s of last century.Since it is clearly defined and convenient for operation, it has been used widely in recent decades.Because the method was not tenable mathematically in some specific condition, it was improved once.However, due to the improved method is still not tenable in some condition, and brought a trend to encourage false prediction, so it is necessary to restudy.After improvement, the new method is presented here for reference.Now the method ensures itself tenable in any condition, and doesn't encourage false prediction and fail prediction.The results scored by the method are consistent basically with the real fact.
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