Abstract:
Three existing death assessment models of earthquake disaster are combed in this paper, and based on the historical moderate and strong earthquakes (
MS4.7 ~
MS6.0) in Gansu Province, the number of earthquake deaths was calculated by the model. The results show that: (1) the calculation results of the three evaluation models are in the same order of magnitude as the actual death results in moderate and strong earthquakes of Gansu Province, which can be used for the fast blind evaluation calculation after the earthquake and provide scientific basis for the emergency command and decision-making of the government and emergency management departments after the earthquake; (2) when the epicentral intensity of moderate and strong earthquake reaches Ⅷ, The error between the calculation results of these three evaluation models and the actual death of personnel become larger. It is necessary to revise the human-computer interaction based on experts’ experience, and make a comprehensive analysis of the data of the geographical environment, social economy and population spatial distribution in the earthquake-stricken areas to support the emergency decision-making; (3) in the assessment of human death caused by moderate and strong earthquakes in Gansu province, Li Wen's model is superior to the other two models in its regional applicability because it takes into account the area of earthquake-stricken areas.